AI-led change is forcing businesses to adapt quickly and the pace is accelerating. To research the rate of change, I asked ChatGPT the following question:
What were the 10 biggest technology innovations since the year 2000, and how long did it take for each to reach 100,000,000 users. Please list each innovation chronologically starting with the earliest innovation and ending with the latest. For TikTok, please use the date it was released globally. Based on this information, provide insight into how long it will take for the next big innovation to reach 100,000,000 users.
GPT’s answer:
Sure, here’s a list of the 10 biggest technology innovations since the year 2000 and the time it took for each
to reach 100,000,000 users, listed chronologically:
- Google Search (2000) – It took Google Search about 6 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2006.
- Skype (2003) – It took Skype about 4 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2007.
- Facebook (2004) – It took Facebook about 4 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2008.
- YouTube (2005) – It took YouTube about 3.5 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2008.
- Twitter (2006) – It took Twitter about 5 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2011.
- iPhone (2007) – It took iPhone about 3 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2010.
- WhatsApp (2009) – It took WhatsApp about 4 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2013.
- Instagram (2010) – It took Instagram about 2.5 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2013.
- TikTok (2016) – It took TikTok about 2 years to reach 100,000,000 users by 2018.
- Pokemon Go (2016) – It took Pokemon Go about 1 month to reach 100,000,000 users by August 2016.
Based on this information, it’s difficult to predict how long it will take for the next big innovation to reach 100,000,000 users, as it depends on a variety of factors such as the type of innovation, its target audience, marketing strategies, and overall market trends. However, we can see that the time it takes for an innovation to reach 100,000,000 users has been decreasing in recent years, with some reaching this milestone in as little as a few months or a couple of years. With the increasing accessibility and use of technology, we may see future innovations reach 100,000,000 users even faster.
A second source
According to Reuters, some key numbers for time to 100,000,000 are:
- Instagram ~ 2 ½ years (2013)
- TikTok ~ 9 months (2020)
- ChatGPT ~ 2 months (2023)
Clearly both chatGPT and Reuters provide strong evidence that the speed of innovation continues to accelerate. AI-driven innovation is happening everywhere, and we are starting to see startups leverage technologies like chatGPT to create new software quickly. Let’s consider an example from RPA.
Building on new AI platforms
RPA has delivered meaningful value, and companies continue to use RPA to automate. According to Reporter Link, The market is $2B+ now, and is expected to exceed $18B in 2030. RPA as a category is relatively new. Based on the history of software, we expect the RPA category will have a lot of room to grow. But technology is changing fast, Microsoft is making great strides in automation (some of which will likely include ChatGPT soon), and disruption could come from another AI innovation.
Late last week, Lasso, a YC company made this announcement: Launch YC: Lasso 🤠 – Robotic process automation for Chrome using GPT3 and computer vision. They are using AI capabilities (LLM / computer vision) to create a new way to perform RPA tasks. Put another way, Lasso used a new type of enabling technology with a vast capacity to understand human language and how humans interact with computers. While we don’t know how well this new software works, the approach has the potential to be disruptive. This disruption could happen very quickly.
The need for business speed
New AI tools such as chatGPT will continue to be used to quickly create new products and capabilities. As noted in my last blog, the accelerating rate of change creates a unique opportunity and threat to existing businesses. Businesses that can adopt fast, will be able to quickly evaluate and take advantage of technologies such as Lasso. Businesses that don’t could wind up using slower more expensive software. Lasso is just one example of many, many innovations that will continue to emerge quickly. Companies that are not able to take advantage of increasingly rapid innovation opportunities will lose market share and fail to maximize profitability.
What should companies do? The first and most important thing companies need to do is to change to an organizational model that encourages innovation and risk taking. One approach I’ve personally seen work well to help large organizations transform is Blue Prism’s Robotic Operating Model (ROM). The ROM helps companies use RPA to automate more quickly. But the ROM only works with strong executive support from a transformational leader, and the ROM is specific to Blue Prism RPA.
Is VFOT the answer?
AI-led change is forcing businesses to adapt quickly and the pace is accelerating. As the speed of innovation continues to accelerate, companies need to involve more people to effect change quickly. I’m intrigued by the concept of Very Fast Organizational Transformation (VFOT), which is supported by the Betacodex network. (I’m also interested to talk to anyone who has used Open Space Beta). Creating and rewarding an organizational mindset of continuous innovation is the most important challenge for business leaders today. All businesses need to spend time, energy, and resources to figure out how to understand change, and responsibly adopt change quickly.
